ET25SWE0041 - Load Shape Planning Tool Development

The creation of new usage load shapes is planned for PA’s (“Program Administrators”) to complete before the next CA program cycle, as outlined in the most recent DEER (“Database for Energy Efficiency Resources“) resolution. The intensive measure development period in preparation for the 2028 cycle must be completed – including planning, measure packages updates, and measure packages approvals -  by July 31, 2026. The project will identify load shapes for different usage types and determine the appropriate level of granularity in data collection for application to DEER28 updates.

This long-awaited work is so important because load shapes are one of the top drivers of cost effectiveness and TSB (“Total System Benefit“) and load shapes are only becoming more critical as the energy market changes. Two examples of changes that make usage load shapes more relevant are: (1) cost avoidance values are becoming more time-dependent, so the correct relationship between energy usage and energy savings is more impactful to TRC (“Total Resource Cost“) and TSB, and (2) load flexibility/load shifting measures are becoming more common and rely upon the value of energy usage during certain parts of the day. This usage load shape work will naturally begin with the measure package development for the next program cycle, starting with a development plan submitted by PA’s to the CPUC (“The California Public Utilities Commission“) in 8/2025.

This project will examine, at least, five different types of electric load shapes in the portfolio of deemed measures (including cooling only, heating and cooling, fuel substitution, water heating, continuous) and their sensitivity to TRC and TSB as compared to the other significant knobs of kWh/therms, EUL (“Expected Useful Life”), and NTG (“Net to Gross”). This project will answer a critical question for measure development that should be decoupled from the hectic development process: To what level of granularity should new usage load shapes be created? TRC Engineers, Inc (“Implementer”) and their subcontractor Second Hand Energy, LLC (“Second Hand Energy”) under the direction of Cohen Ventures, Inc DBA Energy Solutions (“Energy Solutions”) (collectively, the “Project Team”) will explore if/when load shapes can be consolidated or need to be split based on important parameters, such as: 

o Climate zones

o Building types

o Varying base cases

o Varying measure cases

The addition of new usage load shapes for each permutation could add great value to cost effectiveness results, but the cost of implementing that solution could challenge many systems' abilities that include eTRM (“Energy Trading and Risk Management“) storage, CET (“Cost Effectiveness Test”) processing, and PA/implementer data access. Recommending when more detail is valuable will help (1) create the best set of load shapes during measure development that are still usable by all downstream systems and (2) set us up for success when developing new load shapes for load flexibility/load shifting measures.