ET23SWE0028 - Market Characterization of Ultra-Low GWP Space Conditioning Heat Pumps for Commercial Buildings

Heat pumps provide significant energy savings and a path for electrification, but they typically use refrigerants with a high global warming potential (GWP), which can degrade the greenhouse gas reductions from energy savings. The California Air Resources Board (CARB) has regulations that will require refrigerants in stationary air conditioners in nonresidential buildings to be <750 GWP starting in 2025, and for refrigerants in variable refrigerant flow (VRF) systems to be <750 GWP (low GWP) starting in 2026. While this is great progress compared to traditional refrigerants, there is still potential to decrease GHG emissions and increase energy savings as follows:

1. There is a considerable difference between a GWP <750 and “ultra-low” refrigerants, defined here as GWP < 150 (ultra-low GWP). These include natural refrigerants, with GWP < 10. However, natural refrigerants can be challenging to adopt due to flammability concerns or technical challenges.  Manufacturers are developing a range of ultra-low GWP synthetic products (<150 GWP), but they are in various stages of development and some pose challenges like flammability concerns or conflicts with CA building code regulations. For commercial building owners trying to “do the right thing” and install space conditioning heat pumps with ultra-low GWP refrigerants, identifying a solution is challenging.
2. In addition, there are some low-GWP products that meet the CARB requirement (<750 GWP) and have efficiency benefits. These should be encouraged compared to refrigerants with a similar GWP but no efficiency benefits.

This project will conduct a market characterization of low GWP space conditioning heat pumps for commercial buildings. The goal is to identify ultra-low GWP products, and low-GWP products with efficiency improvements, which could be incorporated into utility programs now or in the near future. The scope will include interviews with utility program staff to discuss existing or planned programs for low-GWP refrigerants and how to encourage ultra-low GWP refrigerants and refrigerants with efficiency gains; commercial building owners to discuss their interest in installing low GWP space conditioning heat pumps and their challenges; with manufacturers to discuss their products, products in development, costs of different products, and their challenges with product development. The goal includes identifying at least one viable ultra-low GWP solution, and at least one efficient low-GWP solution. The findings will inform utility incentive programs, and a future field demonstration project of one of the identified ultra-low GWP solutions.